Future Forecast: 2015

Key issues the country is debating are in relation to the charges of government: national security, economics, and welfare of citizens. The issues at hand are identified in Future Forecast for 2014 and have made little progress towards resolution over the past year.

At the center of the stalemate in resolving issues are arguments, yes arguments in the public theater of the press, and the halls of congress, wherever there is a camera or microphone. The rational debate appears insufficient on the floor of the House of Representatives and the Senate. The arguments are over which branch of government is or is not full-filling obligations of their respective offices.

Continuing Forecasts:

In the New Rules Category:  U.S. Economy and International Trade is the root cause of most minority unrest in the streets, and will continue. It is a failure of ethics to the point of being an “unethical fantasy.” How the congress of 1996-2000 could convince itself that it was more important to place the welfare of Chinese workers ahead of U.S. citizens is totally baffling. Unless it was related to campaign financing. Commission on China 2014 Annual Report.

The last update of 2014 takes into consideration the continuing imbalance in international trade with China of around $30 billion a month. The administration may remark about the $2 trillion in annual exports but ignores the delta . . . the lost opportunity costs.

That is another $720 billion trade deficit since 2012. The result, given roll-over in the economy is over $2 trillion more in lost GDP and $1 trillion more in lost tax revenue and fees. Bringing the total lost GDP over the period to $22 trillion and $11 trillion in lost tax revenue and fees as a result of discontinued domestic production.

It is highly likely that considering the cost of government-provided unemployment insurance, food stamps, and medical care alone when added to the cost of import goods, well exceed the cost of locally produced goods and services. Additional consideration should be given to the lost opportunities to learn and gain self-confidence.

Additional Forecast Items:

Given the serious nature of the trade issue, and the impact foreign goods and services have on national security, no other item will be addressed in this forecast.

The leadership of the nation has taken on a business graduate school mentality. That is, it has adopted the concept of disintermediation, a concept intended to reduce costs by eliminating steps in the process of manufacturing products and providing services.

However, rather than containing disintermediation within the sovereign territory of the U.S., it has been extended to foreign governments . . . placing the U.S. in a position of subordination to, and reliance on, the “ethics” of foreign powers.

In the case of China, it is responsible for the twenty-two trillion-dollar loss in potential GDP; eleven trillion-dollar loss in tax revenue and fees; and provided the funds to expand the Chinese military. That is to say, in an indirect way, the U.S. is threatening the security of the Pacific nations.

The U.S. has given up sovereignty of shipping and raw material markets to communist and socialist nations in the belief that somehow, this will benefit financially through reduced costs . . . which have increased costs via required government subsidies to an underemployed citizenry . . . and returned the U.S. to the definition of a colony . . . of China.

Check the labels on all merchandise in retail stores, supermarkets and origin of eighty percent of medicines. Not to mention the automotive and aircraft industries. Yes, some is good, however, becoming dependent on external sources is not.

NOTES:

1. Originally, disintermediation referred to banks giving up the concept of low-interest loans to customers . . . in favor of investing directly in the securities markets . . . for higher returns. Investing in securities is a speculative endeavor. The crash of 2008 consisted of “unethical transactions of a fantasy nature,” by using increasingly higher return rates on poor quality securities and off-the-books bets by market makers.

These bets were against the very securities they were underwriters on. This resulted in TARP and in the final analysis, the bad bets were passed to the citizens in the form of increased interest payments on the national debt.

2. Some will say addressing the trade issue will cause a trade war . . . currently, there is a trade war created by an inept U.S. congress of 1996-2000. And, it is destroying the nation.

For the benefit of citizens at large, a thumbnail description of “who is who” in the process of law-making and enforcement is listed below:

President of the United States of America (POTUS): The Executive Branch

The oath of office of the president of the United States. Before entering Office, the newly elected president will take the following Oath or Affirmation.

“I do solemnly swear (or affirm) Presidential Oath.  that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”

The power of the Executive Branch is vested in the President of the United States, who also acts as head of state and Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces. Under Article II of the Constitution, the President is responsible for the execution and enforcement of the laws created by Congress.

United States Congress: The Legislative Branch

Congressional Oath:

I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter: So help me god.

Established by Article I of the Constitution, the Legislative Branch consists of the House of Representatives and the Senate, which together form the United States Congress. The Constitution Grants Congress the sole authority to enact legislation and declare war, the right to confirm or reject many Presidential appointments, and substantial investigative powers.

United States Armed Forces: The Department of Defense:

Armed Forces Oath: I, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So help me God.

The mission of the Department of Defense is to provide the military forces needed to deter war and to protect the security of our country. The department’s headquarters is at the Pentagon.

NOTE: In relation to oaths listed above. There is

In relation to oaths listed above. There is a separation of church and state, however, the words “So help me God” in oaths is in relation to adherence to “ethical” behavior in the performance of charged duties, a quality that is expected without mentioning for a sitting president. Think of it as the ethics contained in the ten commandments . . . do unto others.

Ethics:

Normative ethics is distinct standards for the rightness and wrongness of actions, how one ought to act, morally speaking.

(Unethical: lacking moral principles; unwilling to adhere to proper rules of conduct; not in accord with the standards of a profession.)

Fantasy

Something that is produced by the imagination; an idea about doing something that is far removed from normal reality that tells a story about things that happen in an imaginary world.

Law:

A system of rules that are enforced through social institutions to govern behavior. Laws can be made by legislatures through legislation (resulting in statues), the executive through decrees and regulations, or judges through binding precedent (normally in common law jurisdictions).

Private individuals can create legally binding contracts, including (in some jurisdictions) arbitration agreements that may elect to accept alternative arbitration to the normal court process.

The formation of laws themselves may be influenced by a constitution (written or unwritten) and the rights encoded therein. The law shapes politics, economics, and society in various ways and serves as a mediator of relations between people.

Posted in Future Forecasts.