Future Forecast: 2012

The 2012 forecast is the result of an assessment of the economic environment. The forecast can be viewed as a report card on progress over the past three years with varying degrees of success. Possible scenarios for the coming twelve months and beyond will certainly challenge all the professional skills of leaders in business, government and academia.

Business as usual will not suffice. With President Kennedy it was a race to the moon. The coming challenge could well require an effort many times that expended in the race to the moon, and in a shorter time span. To put it in terms many understand . . . final exams are tomorrow morning and the students have yet to look under the cover of the textbook.

Did someone say: “We’ll have to pass it to find out what’s in it?” Just saying . . . “Leadership is an essential element in every major effort” . . . just saying.

Supporting Posts: For a clear understanding of the current situation, refer to previous posts under the “New Rules” Category:

  • U.S. Economy and International Trade.
  • Economics for Politicians.

Future of the U.S. and the Economy – 2012

Think it over . . .

Nations with a successful economy also have a strong science, engineering and manufacturing base for commercial purposes.

The definition of a successful nation is one that can provide economic growth, control raw materials sources, and project power to prevent or reverse incursions by a major nation, group of nations, or a variety of terrorist organizations.

Merely having a limited manufacturing capability and relying on imports does not provide real economic growth. Additionally, it limits a nation’s independence by forcing it to rely on a show of force, in place of a mutual understanding the capability exists. A limited nation will always have the need to make force visible, thereby ensuring confrontation.

There are three main levels of consideration:

1. Science and engineering professions to perform the necessary research activities and resultant designs for industry; and

2. The necessary source of raw materials to support research, and build the capital equipment required for research labs and factories; and

3. The transportation and logistics infrastructure to move the raw materials from their source to the factories and then to the markets.

Understood and Acknowledged:

Level one (1) is clearly a major concern and discussed daily by business, government and academia.

Level two (2) is severely impacted in a negative way. With reliance on the import of finished products, raw materials are moving to exporting nations for manufacture. Control of raw material sources has been lost by the U.S. In many instances, this loss has been to nations who do not have the best interest of the U.S. in mind.

Level three (3) is severely impacted in a negative way. Without the need to move raw materials to factories, or finished product from the factories to the markets, the transportation and logistics infrastructure has been seriously diminished.

Notes:

a. It is the transportation and logistics infrastructure that create the need for, and provide the funding for roads, railroads, airports, waterways, pipelines and the manufacture of equipment required to support and maintain them.

b. The loss of employment in levels 1-3 has resulted in negative income from taxes and fees for the various levels of government to provide infrastructure and public services.

Systems for designing and producing consumer products provide the training ground for scientists and engineers to hone the knowledge and skills necessary to support medicine, space and national defense.

Regarding professional knowledge, the level of expertise necessary to develop support for medicine, space exploration and national defense is of a significantly higher degree than that of consumer products and enhance the development of consumer products.

The Far East is becoming the major center of science, engineering, raw material accumulation, and manufacturing of consumer products. The next natural and historical phase for the Far East is building a successful military to project power internationally.

The result for the U.S. economy has, and will continue to be, further devaluation of the currency, loss of international influence, and less productive activity for citizens of a socialist society dependent on government support . . . support for which there is a diminishing source of revenue.

The cycle of power can be traced in sequence form the Far East . . . Middle East . . . Europe . . . U.S. . . . and now the cycle appears to be repeating.

The big questions are:

Will the new power base of the Far East respect the territory of the U.S.?

Will they project an adversarial relationship as they have throughout history?

Will the U.S. pay ransom through extended military aid?

In the interim . . . while waiting the military expansion of the Far East, the U.S. economy may become more like that of France. More service sector jobs with less real income, higher levels of underemployment, and lower levels of knowledge and skill requirements.

* The current underemployment scenario may actually be the normal as the U.S. becomes more of a Socialist culture.

For a clear understanding of the current situation, refer to supporting posts under the “New Rules” Category:

  • U.S. Economy and International Trade.
  • Economics for Politicians.
Posted in Future Forecasts.