Future Forecast: 2011

Original publication date: January 2011

Essentially the 2011 theme is as follows: Indications are that progress identified in previous “Future Forecast” postings continues.

There is a caveat to achieving economic success in 2011 and forward. The caveat is the ability and willingness of national, state and local governments to acknowledge and accept the trade deficit is the systemic root of all revenue and employment problems.

Simplistic statements that the U.S. must concentrate on the pursuit of creating advanced technologies while off shoring the production of common products and servicesis head-in-the-sand reasoning.

Job creation and economic prosperity require industrial activities at all skill levels and product and service needs.

Failure to achieve progress is experienced most frequently in activities constrained by standards intended to ensure a certain level of achievement. In reality, these standards become a resistance level to progress.

Notes:

1. Shortfalls in hiring eventually lead to reductions in efficiency; reduced profit margins, lower than achievable GDP, and unrealized revenues from taxes and fees.

2. Mild inflation is appearing across all production sectors in the form of increased costs for the inputs to production: materials, equipment, qualified personnel. National and international logistics costs are in place for inflation.

3. Consumers are experiencing increased costs for core staple items in the form of increased prices and/or reduced packaging sizes.

4. Clothing costs have increased dramatically. Most sale items are fully priced. EDV (Every Day Value) items, a term applied to the logic of fixed pricing, represent highly elevated pricing.

5. Global competition is appearing via temporary shortages of fresh vegetables and fruits.

6. The position of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve may be overdue for a change. At some point of continued effort and resultant stress, the message may be overcome by the presentation.

Posted in Future Forecasts.