Original publication date: March 2009
Future Forecast for 2009: The following predictions are based on trends in government.
The original intent of centralized government was to support citizen activities of building the nation. However, government has evolved to directing citizen activities through laws and mandates which control, rather than support citizens building the nation.
This trend has created a need for money to support government activities. In addition to the many taxes imposed, government has spent money held in trust for social security and borrowed additional money carried as debt to be paid in the future.
The issue is that since government has shifted from supporting citizen activities to directing and controlling citizens, the list of government initiatives grows without the money necessary to pay for them.
What are the future consequences?
1. Nationalized Health Care: All premiums paid to private insurance companies will be paid to the government and the individual citizen will pay tax on the supposed benefit as income. The result is that all citizens, those who can pay and those who cannot pay will receive marginal health care.
2. Government Sponsored Euthanasia: The Nationalized Health Care program will go broke from the cost and inefficiency of government management. To compensate for the shortfall, limits will be placed on treatment based on age. The threshold for pulling the plug will be lowered as age increases and could reach too old for minimal standards of basic health care.
3. Uptick Rule: The rule will be reinstated to stabilize stock prices. With the uptick rule, sellers can only borrow and sell short if the price has ticked up, and not borrow to sell when stock prices are already in a decline. This activity will generate more tax revenue via day trading and capital gains of rising values.
4. Mark-to-Market: The rule will be removed to limit bank paper losses. Currently, if the market value of an investment falls below the book value, the investment is recognized as a loss. Removing this rule will decrease write-offs and increase tax revenue.
5. Inflation and Stagnation: Shortages in products and services will result from production shutdowns and inventory depletion, accompanied by high unemployment. This will result in higher prices, increased welfare payments and higher taxes.
6. Growing International Conflict: High unemployment rates will lead to internal conflicts. Governments will blame trade partners for bad economic decisions which impact their citizens. Cause for this problem has been a long-term imbalance in trade causing some economies to lose wealth while creating artificial and unsustainable growth and wealth in other nations.
7. Commodity Shortages: Unbalanced trade between nations will result in commodity shortages in nations importing finished goods. This shortage is a result of commodities being controlled by, and going to the nations producing goods, and weakens national security of nations importing finished goods.
8. Growing Trends in Monarchy: According to Wikipedia, there may not be a concrete definition of monarchy as a form of government, however, monarchs have a common theme “absolute power over the citizen” and sometimes they may be called dictators. Citizens in many nations are becoming “more” subservient to religious and political leadership. As an example, Russia has a form of shared monarchy with two political elite, while Cuba and Venezuela have a single form of monarchy. The US appears to be entering a shared monarchy with centralized government exercising absolute power over the citizens.
9. Freedom of Speech Ending: Citizens are cautioned regarding the use of language terms, the settings in which specific terms can be spoken, and the inference about what citizens are thinking based on the terms they speak. The press joins in censorship, limiting the scope of their research based on these same controlling guidelines.
10. Law Becomes Experimentation: Citizens and elected representatives are increasingly ignored by the appointed cabinets and hierarchy of monarchs at all levels, state and nation. Major courts have failed to consider the outcome of their actions and ignore and change constitutional laws based on the taste of their last latte.
Curious Observation: The growing trend in monarchy, law experimentation, and ending freedom of speech are enabled as a result of the prosperous nation built by the citizens . . . a process which is being reversed. What are the future consequences?
The consequences are most likely higher rates of inflation, higher taxes, poor health care, international conflict, diluted Chinese investment, diluted senior citizens savings, and eventually destroying the new monarchy.
You be the judge.